Outlook 2020: Our expectations in short
We have no doubt a more positive outlook on 2020 than what we had on 2019 at the same time last year.
That being said, it is an inescapable fact that the world economy continues in an economic phase where the likelihood of an upcoming recession continues to increase. The current upswing in the US economy is the longest seen in a historical context to date. We therefore expect market fluctuations will continue to be relatively large in 2020, as long as the global economy still balances on a delicate edge between normal growth slowdown and global recession. Add to this the ongoing trade war, and, not least, the upcoming US presidential election – not to mention the probable court case against President Donald Trump. Thus, neither macroeconomic nor political factors have been settled.
In terms of market sentiment, financial players are in a euphoric state after the new historic peaks in many stock markets during the autumn of 2019. Such a condition can be normalized through a correction or a more undramatic consolidation over time – whether it be one or the other, only time will tell. However, one thing most financial players seem to agree on is that returns in 2020 are not expected to be as impressively high in 2020.